2011年4月12日 星期二

The Emerging Market for LEDs and General Lighting

The Emerging Market for LEDs and General Lighting

While still prohibitively expensive on a cost per watt or lumen basis, LEDs are expected to reach parity with traditional forms of lighting (incandescent, flouresent and halogen) sometime around 2015. However, because LEDs have lifetimes up to 50 times longer than the standard bulb, they naturally appeal to a wide variety of commercial and industrial applications where fixed costs are high. Replacement for general lighting by LEDs if often views as the largest and last bastion of traditional lighting. Governments are legislating changes which seek to ban or phase out inefficient and chemically toxic technologies.

The total General Lighting market, including lamps, ballasts, controls and fixtures is today approximately USD 55bn and is expected to grow to USD 73bn by 2015, an annual rate of 6%.As both sides of Hunan Province inflatable seat, turned the first Led Tube, but also both sides of the country's largest turn Led Tube The leading market segments are residential (42%), commercial (23%), industrial (12%) and outdoor (23%). Unit shipments of incandescent, fluorescent and HID lamps will decline as a result of the greater efficiency of LED lamps which produce greater luminosity per lamp.

Although the overall lighting market declined by 15% in 2009, the LED lighting lamp market grew robustly at 32%. In 2010, the market started to see major outdoor area and commercial retrofit adoptions using LED modules, pushing LED penetration of General Lighting to a little above 2% of the total market. Products are still highly variable in terms of quality, but improving rapidly.

To date, cost remains the biggest obstacle to the adoption of LED in General Lighting if we consider LED cost per Kilolumen. Yet today, LEDs are cheaper than other technologies if costs are amortized over their entire lifetime. Most people are not willing to pay the higher upfront cost of an LED light even though it can last up to 50'000 hours (incandescent bulbs have an average lifetime of 1'000 hours). However, the initial cost and cost of ownership is expected to improve dramatically over time.

Manufacturing of LEDs is a semiconductor process that requires high tolerances and precision process control and cost reduction are still in at early stage. Board assembly for LED light bulbs is highly automated, but still involves a considerable amount of manual labor for attaching components,Currently, LED tube lighting, LED spotlight fixture feeding tube and the volume of production of led downlight other little has been achieved. heat syncs and optics.

The total PCBA Bill of Materials is expected to fall by an estimated compounded rate of 34% over the next five years as greater integration is achieved among the LED die, interconnect, packaging, circuit drivers and other hardware. Box assembly costs, including ordinary materials such as glass, plastic, reflectors and metal base, will not decline nearly as sharply.

The LED lamp assembly market is very fragmented, with companies - large and small - introducing their own line of light engines for general illumination which are sold to luminaire manufacturers. Many suppliers, mostly Asian, tend to eliminate margin from finished products in an attempt to establish market share. Strong unit growth and declining ASPs combine to generate positive revenue growth, but solid earnings are difficult to achieve.Bonded Copper cheaper, rolled copper is energy saving light more expensive. Electrolytic copper by electrolysis the name suggests is that copper ions to form copper foil to the substrate, so its features are: high electrical conductivity, but is relatively weak resistance to bending;

Because the market is over populated and so highly fragmented, suppliers then to push costs to the margin leaving very little for profits.There are many small dstti packaging plant the absence of color separation machine, so regardless of light or color, or is contracted out. This is difficult to guarantee the quality There has been a slow trend toward consolidation, generally resulting in a loose collection of smaller divisions that cater to different application segments.

Only multinational companies like Philips,Led Tube with the use of the chip: the chip has made, and the Taiwan chip, as well as led tube imports of chips. Different chips, prices vary widely. Imports more expensive chip prices in the domestic market, few people use that mainly for high-end customers. Osram, General Electric, Panasonic, Toshiba, NEC and Hitachi are quickly building manufacturing scale and process discipline. LEDs are expected to emerge as the dominant lighting technology beginning sometime in 2015.

Though designed for local markets, the manufacturing of mass produced SSL fixtures is being increasingly outsourced to low-cost manufacturers in geographies such as China, Vietnam, India and Bangladesh. There are hundreds of Chinese / Taiwanese and Japanese LED suppliers that are looking for manufacturing scale and distribution. Outsourcing seems to be only attractive for export, except among leading manufacturers / suppliers.

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